Negative causal exploration of systemic sclerosis: a Mendelian randomization analysis.

Systemic sclerosis (SSc), also known as scleroderma, is an autoimmune-related connective tissue disease with a complex and unknown pathophysiological mechanism with genes association. Several articles have reported a high prevalence of thyroid disease in SSc patients, while one study suggested a potential contribution of appendicitis to the development of SSc. To investigate this causal association, we conducted Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis using instrumental variables (IVs) to assess exposure and outcome. In the MR study involving two cohorts, all analyses were conducted using the TwoSampleMR package in R (version 4.3.0). Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) meeting a statistically significant threshold of 5E-08 were included in the analysis. Multiple complementary approaches including MR-IVW, MR-Egger, weighted median, simple mode, and weighted mode were employed to estimated the relationship between the exposure and outcome. Leave-one-out analysis and scatter plots were utilized for further investigation. Based on the locus-wide significance level, all of the MR analysis consequences manifested no causal association between the risk of appendicitis with SSc (IVW OR 0.319, 95% CI 0.063-14.055, P = 0.966). Negative causal effects of autoimmune thyroiditis (AT) on SSc (IVW OR 0.131, 95% CI 0.816-1.362, P = 0.686), Graves' disease (GD) on SSc (IVW OR 0.097, 95% CI 0.837-1.222, P = 0.908), and hypothyroidism on SSc (IVW OR 1.136, 95% CI 0.977-1.321, P = 0.096) were derived. The reverse MR revealed no significant causal effect of SSc on thyroid disease. According to the sensitivity analysis, horizontal pleiotropy was unlikely to distort the causal estimates. The consequences indicated no significant association between AT, GD, and hypothyroidism with SSc. Similarly, there was no observed relationship with appendicitis.

Effectiveness of Endoscopic Screening on Esophageal Cancer Incidence and Mortality: A 9-Year Report of the Endoscopic Screening for Esophageal Cancer in China (ESECC) Randomized Trial.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the effectiveness of endoscopic screening against incidence of and mortality from esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). METHODS: From January 2012 to September 2016, we conducted a community-based cluster randomized controlled trial involving permanent residents age 45-69 years in a high-risk region for ESCC in northern China. A total of 668 targeted villages were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to the screening group (offered Lugol's chromoendoscopy) or control group (no screening). Intention-to-treat and per-protocol analyses were performed to compare esophageal cancer (EC) incidence and mortality between the two groups. The per-protocol analysis adjusted for nonadherence to the screening procedure. RESULTS: A total of 33,847 participants were included in the analysis: 17,104 in the screening group, 15,165 (88.7%) of whom underwent screening, and 16,743 in the control group. During a maximum follow-up of 9 years, EC incidence in the screening and control groups were 60.9 and 72.5 per 100,000 person-years, respectively; mortality in the screening and control groups were 29.7 and 32.4 per 100,000 person-years, respectively. Compared with the control group, the incidence and mortality of the screening group reduced by 19% (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.81 [95% CI, 0.60 to 1.09]) and 18% (aHR, 0.82 [95% CI, 0.53 to 1.26]), respectively, in the intention-to-treat analysis; and by 22% (aHR, 0.78 [95% CI, 0.56 to 1.10]) and 21% (aHR, 0.79 [95% CI, 0.49 to 1.30]), respectively, in the per-protocol analysis. CONCLUSION: With a 9-year follow-up, our trial suggests that chromoendoscopic screening induces modest reductions in EC incidence and mortality. A more efficient strategy for EC screening and subsequent patient management should be established to guarantee the effectiveness of endoscopic screening.

Development and external validation of a quantitative diagnostic model for malignant gastric lesions in clinical opportunistic screening: A multicenter real-world study.

BACKGROUND: Clinical opportunistic screening is a cost-effective cancer screening modality. This study aimed to establish an easy-to-use diagnostic model serving as a risk stratification tool for identification of individuals with malignant gastric lesions for opportunistic screening. METHODS: We developed a questionnaire-based diagnostic model using a joint dataset including two clinical cohorts from northern and southern China. The cohorts consisted of 17,360 outpatients who had undergone upper gastrointestinal endoscopic examination in endoscopic clinics. The final model was derived based on unconditional logistic regression, and predictors were selected according to the Akaike information criterion. External validation was carried out with 32,614 participants from a community-based randomized controlled trial. RESULTS: This questionnaire-based diagnostic model for malignant gastric lesions had eight predictors, including advanced age, male gender, family history of gastric cancer, low body mass index, unexplained weight loss, consumption of leftover food, consumption of preserved food, and epigastric pain. This model showed high discriminative power in the development set with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.791 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.750-0.831). External validation of the model in the general population generated an AUC of 0.696 (95% CI: 0.570-0.822). This model showed an ideal ability for enriching prevalent malignant gastric lesions when applied to various scenarios. CONCLUSION: This easy-to-use questionnaire-based model for diagnosis of prevalent malignant gastric lesions may serve as an effective prescreening tool in clinical opportunistic screening for gastric cancer.

Membrane positioning across antigen-induced synaptic contacts tunes CAR-T cell signaling and effector responses.

Tumor antigen recognition by chimeric antigen receptors (CAR) triggers phosphorylation of their cytoplasmic portions resulting in CAR-T cell activation. We and others have shown that immunoreceptor triggering depends on the formation of close synaptic contacts, determined by the span of immunoreceptor-ligand complexes, from which large inhibitory phosphatases such as CD45 are sterically excluded. Here, we show, varying CAR-antigen complex span, that CAR-T cell activation depends on a formation of close contacts with target cells. CAR-antigen complexes with a span of 4 immunoglobulin superfamily (IgSF) domains maximize CAR-T cell activation, closely matching the span of endogenous TCR-pMHC complexes. Longer CAR-antigen complexes precipitously reduced triggering and cytokine production, but notably, anti-tumor cytotoxicity was largely preserved due to a ∼10-fold lower signaling threshold for mobilization of cytolytic effector function. Increased intermembrane spacing disrupted short-spanned PD-1-PD- L1 interactions, reducing CAR-T cell exhaustion. Together, our results show that membrane positioning across the immunological synapse can be engineered to generate CAR-T cells with clinically desirable functional profiles in vitro and in vivo .

How should extra-large Lugol-unstained lesions of the esophagus be treated? Results from a population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Current guidelines recommend only severe dysplasia and above (SDA) lesions of the esophageal squamous epithelium for clinical intervention. However, the histopathologic diagnosis derived from tissue biopsies may be subject to underestimation of severity. METHODS: 1073 participants from whom biopsies were taken at baseline chromoendoscopic examination in a population-based screening trial were enrolled in this study. The size of the Lugol-unstained lesions (LULs) was mainly analyzed. The outcome was defined as SDA lesions either identified at baseline screening, or during follow-up, collectively referred to as the cumulative risk of SDA. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to evaluate the cumulative risk of SDA. RESULTS: One hundred and forty-six SDA cases were identified in the study period. Participants with large LULs had a high cumulative incidence of SDA (cumulative incidence16-20mm : 55.88%; cumulative incidence>20mm : 76.92%) in the median of 7-year duration. LULs of large size were significantly associated with a higher cumulative risk of SDA, regardless of the pathologic diagnosis (adjusted OR16-20mmvs.≤5mm = 21.02, 95% CI: 7.56-58.47; adjusted OR>20mmvs.≤5mm = 33.62, 95% CI: 11.79-95.87). CONCLUSIONS: Results from this study suggest physician-patient shared decision-making regarding clinical treatment or intensive surveillance should be carried out for LULs >20 mm in the esophagus, regardless of the histologic diagnosis. For those with LULs of 16-20 mm, intensive surveillance would also best be considered.

Lugol-unstained lesions location in the esophagus affects the detection rate of malignancy: a population-based study.

INTRODUCTION: This study aimed to evaluate the impact of Lugol-unstained lesion (LUL) location on the detection yield, which may help the endoscopist select targets for biopsy. METHODS: We enrolled 1064 subjects who had LULs at the baseline screening of a population-based randomized controlled trial. There were 1166 LULs with recorded location and pathologic diagnosis, and these were used for analysis. The detection rate of severe dysplasia and above (SDA) was calculated as the number of LULs identified as SDA divided by the number of LULs biopsied. Logistic regression with a generalized estimating equation was applied to evaluate the association between the location of a given LUL and the risk of the LUL being SDA. RESULTS: The detection rate of SDA for LULs located in the lower, middle, and upper esophagus increased from 5.9% and 10.9% to 16.7%. LUL location was significantly associated with having SDA (adjusted odds ratio (OR)upper vs. lower  = 2.88, 95% confidential interval (CI) = 1.48-5.60; adjusted ORmiddle vs. lower  = 1.63, 95% CI = 0.96-2.76), and the association was stronger in subgroups with a family history of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) (adjusted ORupper vs. lower  = 9.72, 95% CI = 2.57-36.69; adjusted ORmiddle vs. lower  = 3.76, 95% CI = 0.93-15.21). CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that more attention should be paid by endoscopists to LULs in the upper and middle esophagus, particularly for individuals with a family history of ESCC.

Multiple Lugol-unstained lesions predict higher cumulative risk of malignance in the esophagus.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: The impact of the presence of multiple Lugol-unstained lesions (LULs) in the esophagus on the risk of having severe dysplasia and above (SDA) lesions among asymptomatic individuals is unknown. METHODS: We collected demographic factors, behavioral variables, and features of LULs from 1073 participants who were biopsied at baseline endoscopic screening in a population-based screening trial, and these individuals were followed over a median time of 7 years. Outcome events were defined as SDA identified at screening, at reexamination, or during follow-up. "Multiple LULs" were defined as ≥ 2 LULs found in the entirety of the esophagus. Multivariable logistic regression models were fitted to assess the effect of "multiple LULs" on the cumulative risk of SDA. RESULTS: There were 147 SDA cases in the current study. After adjustment for potential risk factors and endoscopic features of LULs, the presence of "multiple LULs" slightly increased the cumulative risk of having SDA with no statistical significance (adjusted odds ratio [OR] = 1.26; 95% confidence interval [CI] [0.85, 1.88]). Further stratified analysis showed that this association was strong among subjects with small LULs (≤ 5 mm) (adjusted OR = 3.29; 95% CI [1.39, 7.79]). However, no such association was observed in subjects with larger LULs (adjusted OR = 0.99; 95% CI [0.63, 1.55], P interaction  = 0.022). CONCLUSIONS: The presence of "multiple small LULs (≤ 5 mm)" in chromoendoscopy indicates a higher cumulative risk of having SDA in the esophagus. We recommend biopsies be taken and surveillance be maintained at a more active level in individuals with relatively small but multiple LULs.

Cost-effectiveness of precision screening for esophageal cancer based on individualized risk stratification in China: Real-world evidence from the ESECC trial.

Background: Conventional universal endoscopic screening with pathology-based endoscopic re-examination for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma is in need of reform in China. We established a "two-step" precision screening strategy using two risk prediction models and have evaluated the cost-effectiveness of this precision strategy compared with the traditional strategy based on a large population-level randomized controlled trial from a healthcare provider's perspective. Methods: Four precision screening strategies with different risk cutoffs at baseline screening and endoscopic surveillance were constructed, and then compared with traditional strategy through modeling using subjects from the screening cohort of the ESECC (Endoscopic Screening for Esophageal Cancer in China) trial. Total screening costs and the number of SDA (severe dysplasia and above in lesions of the esophagus) cases were obtained to calculate the average screening cost per SDA detected, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) and protection rates. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to evaluate uncertainties. Results: Compared to traditional strategy, all precision screening strategies have much lower average costs for detection of one SDA case ($7,148~$11,537 vs. $14,944). In addition, precision strategies 1&2 (strategies 1,2,3,4 described below) achieved higher effectiveness (143~150 vs. 136) and higher protection rates (87.7%~92.0% vs. 83.4%) at lower cost ($1,649,727~$1,672,221 vs. $2,032,386), generating negative ICERs (-$54,666/SDA~-$25,726/SDA) when compared to the traditional strategy. The optimal strategies within different willingness-to-pay (WTP) ranges were all precision screening strategies, and higher model sensitivities were adopted as WTP increased. Conclusions: Precision screening strategy for esophageal cancer based on risk stratification is more cost-effective than use of traditional screening strategy and has practical implications for esophageal cancer screening programs in China.

Development and External Validation of an Improved Version of the Diagnostic Model for Opportunistic Screening of Malignant Esophageal Lesions.

We aimed to develop an improved version of the diagnostic model predicting the risk of malignant esophageal lesions in opportunistic screening and validate it in external populations. The development set involved 10,595 outpatients receiving endoscopy from a hospital in Hua County, a high-risk region for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma in northern China. Validation set A enrolled 9453 outpatients receiving endoscopy in a non-high-risk region in southern China. Validation set B involved 17,511 residents in Hua County. The improved diagnostic model consisted of seven predictors including age, gender, family history of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma, smoking, body mass index, dysphagia, and retrosternal pain, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.860 (95% confidence interval: 0.835-0.886) in the development set. Ideal discrimination ability was achieved in external validations (AUC validation set A: 0.892, 95% confidence interval: 0.858-0.926; AUC validation set B: 0.799, 95% confidence interval: 0.705-0.894). This improved model also markedly increased the detection rate of malignant esophageal lesions compared with universal screening, demonstrating great potential for use in opportunistic screening of malignant esophageal lesions in heterogeneous populations.

Absence of NOTCH1 mutation and presence of CDKN2A deletion predict progression of esophageal lesions.

Currently, surveillance for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) runs a risk of underestimation of early lesions which show absence of iodine staining, with no or only mild histologic changes. The development of molecular markers that indicate risk of progression is thus warranted. We performed whole-exome sequencing on biopsies from two sequential endoscopies of a single esophageal lesion and matching blood samples. There were 27 pairs of age-, gender-, pathologic stage-, and sampling interval-matched progressors and non-progressors identified in a prospective community-based ESCC screening trial. Putative molecular progression markers for ESCC were first evaluated by comparing somatic mutation, copy number alteration (CNA), and mutational signature information among progressors and non-progressors. These markers were then validated with another 24 pairs of matched progressors and non-progressors from the same population using gene alteration status identified by target sequencing and quantitative PCR. Progressors had more somatic mutation and CNA burden, as well as apolipoprotein B mRNA editing catalytic polypeptide-like and age-related signature weights compared with non-progressors. A gene score consisting of somatic NOTCH1 mutation and CDKN2A deletion is predictive of risk of progression in lesions which show absence of iodine staining under endoscopy but have no or only mild dysplasia. This gene score was also validated in an external cohort of matched progressors and non-progressors. Absence of NOTCH1 mutation and presence of CDKN2A deletion are markers of progression in squamous lesions of the esophagus. This gene score would be an ideal indicator for assisting the pathologist in the identification of high-risk individuals who could be potentially 'missed' or subject to a risk underestimation by histologic analysis, and might improve the performance of ESCC surveillance. © 2022 The Pathological Society of Great Britain and Ireland.

Economic Burden Conferred by Population-Level Cancer Screening on Resource-Limited Communities: Lessons From the ESECC Trial.

Objectives: Upper gastrointestinal (G.I.) cancer screening has been conducted in China for decades. However, the economic burden for treatment "intensively" occurred in advance due to screening in resource-limited communities remain unclear. Methods: We compared the treatment costs for upper G.I. cancers from the screening and control arms of a population-based randomized trial in a high-risk area for esophageal cancer (EC) in China based on claims data from the health insurance system in the local area which included whole population coverage. Results: The average out-of-pocket cost per treatment of EC in the screening arm was lower than that in the control arm ($5,972 vs. $7,557). This difference was a consequence of down-staging from screening which resulted in lower cost therapy for earlier stage cancers. Moreover, this result is similar for cardial and non-cardial gastric cancer in the two study arms ($7,933 vs. $10,605). However, three times as many (103 vs. 36) families in the screening arm suffered catastrophic health expenditure for all cancer types. The overall treatment cost for all EC patients in the screening arm ($1,045,119) was 2.44 times that in the control arm ($428,292), and the ratio for cardial and non-cardial gastric cancer was 1.12 ($393,261 vs. $351,557). Conclusion: Cancer treatment secondary to screening may triple the likelihood of catastrophic patient medical expenditure, and sharply increase the economic pressure on the local community, particularly for cancer types which are of high prevalence. Financial support for patients and the health insurance system should be taken into consideration when planning budgets for cancer screening programs in communities which are resource-limited.

Update and validation of a diagnostic model to identify prevalent malignant lesions in esophagus in general population.

Background: Previous risk prediction models taking esophageal malignant lesions detected during endoscopy as the primary outcome are not always sufficient to identify prevalent cases which are "overlooked" at screening. We aimed to update and externally validate our previous risk prediction model for malignant esophageal lesions by redefining the predicted outcome. Methods: 15,192 individuals from the Endoscopic Screening for Esophageal Cancer in China randomized controlled trial (ESECC trial, NCT01688908) were included as the training set, and 4576 participants from another population-based esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) screening cohort (Anyang Esophageal Cancer Cohort Study, AECCS) served as the external validation set. Lesions with severe dysplasia or worse diagnosed at chromoendoscopy or identified via follow-up within 1 year after screening were defined as main outcome. Logistic regressions were applied to reconstruct the questionnaire-based prediction model using information collected before screening, with Akaike Information Criterion to determine the model structure. Findings: The final prediction model included age and its quadratic term, family history of ESCC, low body mass index (≤22 kg/m2), use of coal or wood as main fuel for cooking, eating rapidly, and ingestion of leftover food. The area under the curve was 0·77 (95% CI: 0·73-0·80) and 0·71 (95% CI: 0·65-0·78) in the training and validation set. When screening the top 50% or 10% of high-risk individuals within population, the detection rates can be increased in both cohorts, as compared to universal screening. Interpretation: The described tool may promote the efficiency of current national screening programs for ESCC and contribute to a precision screening strategy in high-risk regions in China. Funding: This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (82073626, 81773501), the National Science & Technology Fundamental Resources Investigation Program of China (2019FY101102), the National Key R&D Program of China (2021YFC2500405), the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Basic Research Cooperation Project (J200016), the Digestive Medical Coordinated Development Center of Beijing Hospitals Authority (XXZ0204) and the Beijing Nova Program (Z201100006820093). Sponsors had no role in the study design, data collection, analysis, and interpretation of data.

Tumor-associated autoantibodies in ESCC screening: Detecting prevalent early-stage malignancy or predicting future cancer risk?

BACKGROUND: To assess potential roles for tumor-associated autoantibodies (TAAs) in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) screening: detecting early-stage malignancy, and predicting future cancer risk. METHOD: Thirteen candidate autoantibodies identified in previous literatures were measured using multiplex serological assays in sera from cases and matched controls nested in two population-level screening cohorts in China. To evaluate the role of TAAs in detecting prevalent esophageal malignant lesions, an identification set (150 cases vs. 560 controls) and an external validation set (34 cases vs. 121 controls) were established with pre-screening sera collected ≤ 12 months prior to screening-related diagnosis. To explore the role of TAAs in predicting future ESCC risk, an exploration set (105 cases vs. 416 controls) with pre-diagnostic sera collected > 12 months before clinical diagnosis was established. Two models, the questionnaire-based model and full model additionally incorporating TAA markers, were constructed. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and net reclassification improvement (NRI) were calculated to compare the performance of the two models. FINDINGS: In the identification set, NY-ESO-1 (OR=2·12, 95% CI=1·02-4·40) and STIP1 (OR=1·83, 95% CI=1·10-3·05) were positively associated with higher risk of esophageal malignancy. Elevated MMP-7 was associated with higher risk of malignancy in females (ORfemale=5·07, 95% CI=1·30-19·71). The estimates in validation set were consistent with these results, but were close to null in exploration set. Integration of selected TAAs improved the performance of questionnaire-based models in detecting prevalent esophageal malignancy (female: AUCfull model=0·745, 95% CI=0·675-0·814, AUCquestionnaire-based model=0·658, 95% CI=0·585-0·732, NRI=0·604, P<0·0001; male: AUCfull model=0·662, 95% CI=0·596-0·728, AUCquestionnaire-based model=0·619, 95% CI=0·548-0·690, NRI=0·357, P=0·0028). This improvement was also seen in validation set, but was not similarly effective in distinguishing long-term incident cases from healthy controls. INTERPRETATION: Serological autoantibodies against NY-ESO-1, STIP1, and MMP-7 perform well in detecting early-stage esophageal malignancy, but are less effective in predicting future ESCC risks. FUNDING: This work was supported by the National Science & Technology Fundamental Resources Investigation Program of China (2019FY101102), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (82073626), the National Key R&D Program of China (2016YFC0901404), the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Basic Research Cooperation Project (J200016), the Digestive Medical Coordinated Development Center of Beijing Hospitals Authority (XXZ0204), and the Natural Science Foundation of Beijing Municipality (7182033).

Family history of esophageal cancer modifies the association of serum lipids and malignant esophageal lesions: a nested case-control study from the "Endoscopic Screening for Esophageal Cancer in China" trial.

BACKGROUND: The association of lipids and cancer has varied greatly among different cancer types, lipid components and study populations. This study is aimed to investigate the association of serum lipids and the risk of malignant lesions in esophageal squamous epithelium. METHODS: In the "Endoscopic Screening for Esophageal Cancer in China" (ESECC) trial, serum samples were collected and tested for total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol at the time of subject enrollment. Cases were defined as malignant esophageal lesions identified by baseline endoscopic examination or by follow-up to May 31, 2018. Controls were randomly selected using incidence density sampling in the same cohort. Conditional logistic models were applied to identify the association of serum lipids and the risk of malignant esophageal lesions. Effect modification was evaluated by testing interaction terms of the factor under assessment and these serum lipid indicators. RESULTS: No consistent association between serum lipid levels and esophageal malignant lesions were found in a pooled analysis of 211 cases and 2101 controls. For individuals with a family history of esophageal cancer (EC), high TC, and LDL-C were associated with a significantly increased risk of having malignant lesions (odds ratio [OR]High vs. Low TC = 2.22, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.14-4.35; ORHigh vs. Low LDL-C = 1.93, 95% CI: 1.01-3.65). However, a negative association was observed in participants without an EC family history (ORHigh vs. Low TC = 0.69, 95% CI: 0.48-0.98, Pinteraction = 0.002; ORHigh vs. Low LDL-C = 0.50, 95% CI: 0.34-0.76, Pinteraction < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we found that the association of serum lipids and malignant esophageal lesions might be modified by EC family history. The stratified analysis would be crucial for population-based studies investigating the association of serum lipids and cancer. The mechanism by which a family history of EC modifies this association warrants further investigation.

Size of Lugol-unstained lesions as a predictor for risk of progression in premalignant lesions of the esophagus.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: At present, the surveillance strategy for premalignant esophageal lesions in China is based solely on the pathologic diagnosis in Lugol's chromoendoscopy (LCE). In this study, we sought to determine the degree to which various unstained features under LCE may lead to improved ability to predict the risk of progression in esophageal lesions. METHODS: We re-examined and followed up on 1058 subjects who had Lugol-unstained lesions (LULs) together with a pathologic diagnosis that was lower than severe dysplasia at baseline screening based on a population-based randomized controlled trial over a median time of 5.8 years. We established a logistic regression model and calculated the adjusted cumulative incidence of severe dysplasia or malignancy. RESULTS: LUL size was predictive of progression to malignant lesions in individuals with a nondysplastic diagnosis (adjusted odd ratio6-10 mm vs ≤5 mm, 6.7; 95% confidence interval, 1.7-25.7; adjusted odds ratio>10 mm vs ≤5 mm, 27.9; 95% confidence interval, 7.3-105.7), and the corresponding adjusted cumulative incidence of malignant lesions was 3.6 and 13.2 per 100 persons. This is higher than that of small (≤5 mm) lesions, which showed mild dysplasia (2.7 per 100 persons), a condition for which surveillance every 3 years is recommended. Under the current approach, 65.3% of interval cancers missed at surveillance would be detected if individuals with medium (6-10 mm) and large (>10 mm) nondysplastic LULs were additionally monitored. CONCLUSIONS: We propose a modified surveillance strategy that combines findings under LCE examination and the pathologic analysis, where follow-up endoscopy is recommended for individuals with relatively large nondysplastic lesions.

Osteonecrosis of femoral head in young patients with femoral neck fracture: a retrospective study of 250 patients followed for average of 7.5 years.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the risk factors for osteonecrosis of the femoral head (ONFH) after the treatment of femoral neck fracture in patients under 60 years old. METHODS: A total of 250 cases of femoral neck fracture treated at 3 hospitals in Xuzhou from January 2002 to January 2016 were studied. The patients were followed up for 1~15 years, and the clinical data on femoral head necrosis after the femoral neck operation were analysed retrospectively. Risk factors were recorded, including age, gender, preoperative traction, time from injury to operation, reduction method, type of reduction, BMI, ASA classification, and quality of reduction. Logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate the independent risk factors for ONFH after treatment of femoral neck fracture. RESULTS: The duration of follow-up was 1~15 years, with an average of 7.5 years. None of the 250 patients had fracture non-union, but 40 (16%) had necrosis of the femoral head. The time to necrosis of the femoral head was 1~7 years after the operation, with an average of 3.8 years. Univariate analysis showed that the type of fracture, the quality of reduction, the removal of internal fixation, BMI and ASA classification were risk factors affecting necrosis of the femoral head in patients with femoral neck fracture, and the difference was statistically significant (P < 0.05). Multivariate analysis showed that internal fixation, fracture type (displacement), reduction quality (dissatisfaction), BMI (> 25), and ASA grade (III + IV) were independent risk factors affecting femoral head necrosis in patients with femoral neck fracture. CONCLUSION: A variety of high-risk factors for femoral head necrosis are present after surgery with hollow compression screws for femoral neck fracture in adults. Removal of internal fixation, type of fracture, quality of reduction, BMI, and ASA classification were the most important risk factors influencing the development of femoral head necrosis. During treatment, there should be some targeted measures to reduce the incidence of necrosis of the femoral head.

A clinical model predicting the risk of esophageal high-grade lesions in opportunistic screening: a multicenter real-world study in China.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Prediction models for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma are not common, and no model targeting a clinical population has previously been developed and validated. We aimed to develop a prediction model for estimating the risk of high-grade esophageal lesions for application in clinical settings and to validate the performance of this model in an external population. METHODS: The model was developed based on the results of endoscopic evaluation of 5624 outpatients in one hospital in a high-risk region in northern China and was validated using 5765 outpatients who had undergone endoscopy in another hospital in a non-high-risk region in southern China. Predictors were selected with unconditional logistic regression analysis. The Akaike information criterion was used to determine the final structure of the model. Discrimination was estimated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Calibration was assessed using a calibration plot with an intercept and slope. RESULTS: The final prediction model contained 5 variables, including age, smoking, body mass index, dysphagia, and retrosternal pain. This model generated an AUC of 0.871 (95% confidence interval, 0.842-0.946) in the development set, with an AUC of 0.862 after bootstrapping. The 5-variable model was superior to a single age model. In the validation population, the AUC was 0.843 (95% confidence interval, 0.793-0.894). This model successfully stratified the clinical population into 3 risk groups and showed high ability for identifying concentrated groups of cases. CONCLUSIONS: Our model for esophageal high-grade lesions has a high predictive value. It has the potential for application in clinical opportunistic screening to aid decision making for both health care professionals and individuals.

Oral microbiome and risk of malignant esophageal lesions in a high-risk area of China: A nested case-control study.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to prospectively evaluate the association of oral microbiome with malignant esophageal lesions and its predictive potential as a biomarker of risk. METHODS: We conducted a case-control study nested within a population-based cohort with up to 8 visits of oral swab collection for each subject over an 11-year period in a high-risk area for esophageal cancer in China. The oral microbiome was evaluated with 16S ribosomal RNA (rRNA) gene sequencing in 428 pre-diagnostic oral specimens from 84 cases with esophageal lesions of severe squamous dysplasia and above (SDA) and 168 matched healthy controls. DESeq analysis was performed to identify taxa of differential abundance. Differential oral species together with subject characteristics were evaluated for their potential in predicting SDA risk by constructing conditional logistic regression models. RESULTS: A total of 125 taxa including 37 named species showed significantly different abundance between SDA cases and controls (all P<0.05 & false discovery rate-adjusted Q<0.10). A multivariate logistic model including 11 SDA lesion-related species and family history of esophageal cancer provided an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.89 (95% CI, 0.84-0.93). Cross-validation and sensitivity analysis, excluding cases diagnosed within 1 year of collection of the baseline specimen and their matched controls, or restriction to screen-endoscopic-detected or clinically diagnosed case-control triads, or using only bacterial data measured at the baseline, yielded AUCs>0.84. CONCLUSIONS: The oral microbiome may play an etiological and predictive role in esophageal cancer, and it holds promise as a non-invasive early warning biomarker for risk stratification for esophageal cancer screening programs.

Absence of Iodine Staining Associates With Progression of Esophageal Lesions in a Prospective Endoscopic Surveillance Study in China.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Chromoendoscopy with iodine staining is used to identify esophageal squamous dysplasia and esophageal squamous cell carcinomas (ESCCs)-absence of staining indicates suspicious regions of dysplasia. However, screening detects precancerous lesions (mild and moderate dysplasia) that do not require immediate treatment; it is a challenge to which lesions are at risk for progression. We investigated the association between absence of iodine staining at chromoendoscopy screening and lesion progression using 6 years of follow-up data from a population-based randomized controlled trial in China. We then constructed and validated a model to calculate risk of progression to severe dysplasia, carcinoma in situ, or ESCC. METHODS: We collected data from 1468 participants (45-69 years old) who were either negative for iodine staining at a baseline chromoendoscopy or found to have mild or moderate dysplasia in histologic analysis of biopsies in the Endoscopic Screening for Esophageal Cancer study in China, from January 2012 through September 2016; 788 of these participants were re-examined by endoscopy after a median interval of 4.2 years (development cohort). We investigated the association between absence of iodine staining and progression of esophageal lesions using Cox prediction models, considering corresponding baseline pathology findings and patient answers to a comprehensive questionnaire. Patients who did not receive a follow-up examination (n = 680) was used as the validation cohort; outcome events in these patients were identified by annual door to door active interviews or linkage with local electronic registry data. The primary outcome was incident esophageal severe dysplasia, carcinoma in situ, or ESCC. RESULTS: In the development cohort, 11 lesions that did not stain with iodine but were classified as not dysplastic in the histology analysis were found to be severe dysplasia, carcinoma in situ, or ESCC at the follow-up evaluation. These lesions accounted for 39.3% of all progressed lesions (n = 28). In the validation cohort, 6 patients with lesions did not stain with iodine but were classified as not dysplastic by histology had a later diagnosis of ESCC, determined from medical records; these patients accounted for 50.0% of all patients with lesion progression (n = 12) until the closing date of this study. We developed a model based on patient age, body mass index, pathology findings, and baseline iodine staining to calculate risk for severe dysplasia, carcinoma in situ, or ESCC. It identified patients for severe dysplasia, carcinoma in situ, or ESCC in the development set with an area under the curve of 0.868 (95% CI, 0.817-0.920) and in the validation set with an area under the curve of 0.850 (95% CI, 0.748-0.952). Almost no cases would be missed if subjects determined to be high or intermediate-high risk subjects by the model were included in surveillance. CONCLUSIONS: Absence of iodine staining at baseline chromoendoscopy identifies esophageal lesions at risk of progression with a high level of sensitivity. A model that combines results of iodine chromoendoscopy with other patient features identifies patients at risk of lesion progression with greater accuracy than histologic analysis of baseline biopsies.

Identification of cancer patients using claims data from health insurance systems: A real-world comparative study.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the accuracy of identifying cancer patients by use of medical claims data in a health insurance system in China, and provide the basis for establishing the claims-based cancer surveillance system in China. METHODS: We chose Hua County, Henan Province as the study site, and randomly selected 300 and 1,200 qualified inpatient electronic medical records (EMRs) as well as the New Rural Cooperative Medical Scheme (NCMS) claims records for cancer patients in Hua County People's Hospital (HCPH) and Anyang Cancer Hospital (ACH) in 2017. Diagnostic information for NCMS claims was evaluated on an individual level, and sensitivity and positive predictive value (PPV) were calculated taking the EMRs as the gold standard. RESULTS: The sensitivity of NCMS was 95.2% (93.8%-96.3%) and 92.0% (88.3%-94.8%) in ACH and HCPH, respectively. The PPV of the NCMS was 97.8% (96.7%-98.5%) in ACH and 89.0% (84.9%-92.3%) in HCPH. Overall, the weighted and combined sensitivity and PPV of NCMS in Hua County was 93.1% and 92.1%, respectively. Significantly higher sensitivity and PPV in identifying patients with common cancers than non-common cancers were detected in HCPH and ACH separately (P<0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Identification of cancer patients by use of the NCMS is accurate on individual level, and it is therefore feasible to conduct claims-based cancer surveillance in areas not covered by cancer registries in China.